So my pet theory last week just got blown to all hell this week.
(Or at least close to all hell.) What happened? Well, Ohio
State lost (dammit). Michigan bit it. Iowa went down.
Arizona State lost a close thriller (I wish I had seen that game; I was
listening to it with Jim Wheatley on our way to the Saturday late night
venue at Bal Jam), and TCU got to experience the same treatment they
pulled on Oklahoma, getting bounced by SMU, of all teams.
So what happened in the theory? Well:
Michigan - #3 AP (#3 USA Today) to #14 AP (#14 USA Today)
Ohio State - #4 AP (#7 USA Today) to #9 AP (#9 USA Today)
Iowa - #8 AP (#8 USA Today) to #22 AP (#21 USA Today)
Arizona State - #15 AP (#15 USA Today) to #18 AP (#22 USA Today)
TCU - #22 AP (unranked) to unranked in both polls
So what on earth happened here? Ohio State, Arizona State, and
TCU were the only ones who came close to staying in line with the
theory, and even those first two have oddities. AZ St. should've
dropped to #20 or so, probably #21, given that it was a home
loss. However, the loss was to a higher ranked team (something
which I think I'm going to have to take into consideration at some
point, but I want to see a pattern established before I say anything on
it).... and that's all I got. No clue here. The reasoning
is probably the same behind why OSU only dropped 2(!) spots in the USA
Today poll. I don't know why that happened, either.
Of course, those are the sane cases. Why the hell did Michigan
drop 11 spots and Iowa drop 14? The only thing I can think of is
retribution. I mean, maybe there's an Irish bias here with
Michigan, but they shouldn't have slipped out of the top 10 by that
logic (or at the worst, dropped to 11th, behind ND). Of course,
neither poll has ever taken into account actually putting teams in
order of how they've won and such before (see Tennessee being behind
Georgia in the rankings last year, even after beating them AT
Georgia). No clue why this happened - but Michigan'll probably
get corrected in the next couple of weeks. As for Iowa, I guess
that the "darkhorse" potential BCS team must count against something -
it was a bad loss (probably good for another drop of 2); even with
that, they should be around #18. I'm gonna chalk this up to an
outlier week, unless I see more of it.
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Week 2: Retribution Voting
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